Aluminiyamu ndi chitsulo chomwe chimakhala ndi mphamvu zambiri komanso chimatulutsa mpweya wambiri.Pansi pa mgwirizano wapadziko lonse wapadziko lonse lapansi pa kuchepetsa mpweya, komanso pansi pa zopinga za "double carbon" ndi ndondomeko za "mphamvu yogwiritsira ntchito mphamvu ziwiri", makampani opanga ma electrolytic aluminiyamu adzakumana ndi kusintha kwakukulu.Tidzapitiriza kukumba mozama mu makampani a aluminiyamu a electrolytic, kuchokera ku ndondomeko kupita ku mafakitale, kuchokera ku macro kupita ku micro, kuchokera kuzinthu mpaka zofunikira, kufufuza zosinthika zomwe zingakhalepo pa ulalo uliwonse, ndikuwunika momwe zingakhudzire mitengo ya aluminiyamu yamtsogolo.
Kutentha kwakukulu kumatha, kaya mtengo wa aluminiyamu umayang'ana "kuchepetsa kutentha thupi"
Kutentha koopsa mu August kunasesa padziko lonse lapansi, ndipo madera ambiri a Eurasia anakumana ndi nyengo yotentha kwambiri, ndipo magetsi akumaloko anali opanikizika kwambiri.Pakati pawo, mtengo wamagetsi wakwera kwambiri m'madera ambiri a ku Ulaya, zomwe zachititsa kuti kuchepetsedwa kwina kwa mafakitale a electrolytic aluminiyamu.Panthawi imodzimodziyo, chigawo chakumwera chakumadzulo kwa dzikolo chinakhudzidwanso kwambiri ndi kutentha kwapamwamba, ndipo kuchepa kwakukulu kwa kupanga kunachitika m'chigawo cha Sichuan.Pakusokonezedwa ndi mbali yoperekera zinthu, mtengo wa aluminiyamu unakweranso kuchokera ku 17,000 yuan/ton mkati mwa July kufika pamwamba pa 19,000 yuan/ton kumapeto kwa August.Pakalipano, nyengo yotentha yayamba kuchepa ndipo Fed ikuyembekezeka kukweza chiwongola dzanja kwambiri.Kodi mtengo wa aluminiyumu ukuyang'anizana ndi "chimfine"?
Tikukhulupirira kuti malingaliro anthawi yayitali akuchepera, ndipo kukwera kwa index ya dollar yaku US kwapondereza zinthu, zomwe zapangitsa kuti mitengo ya aluminiyamu ikhale yovuta.Koma pakatikati, vuto la kuchepa kwa mphamvu ku Ulaya lidzakhalapo kwa nthawi yaitali, kukula kwa kuchepetsa kupanga aluminiyamu ya electrolytic kudzakulitsidwa, ndipo kutsika kwake ndi kutsika kwake kudzadalira kwambiri katundu wochokera kunja.Ndi mitengo yotsika yamagetsi ku China, kutumiza kwa aluminiyamu kunja kuli ndi phindu lotsika mtengo, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti kunja kwapanyumba kugawo lachitatu ndi lachinayi likhalebe labwino.M'nyengo yopuma ya chikhalidwe cha m'nyumba, kugwiritsira ntchito ma terminal kumasonyeza kulimba mtima, ndipo kusonkhanitsa kosungirako pakati pa mtsinje wapakati ndi kumtunda kumakhala kochepa.Pambuyo pa kutentha kwakukulu, ntchito yomanga pansi pamtsinje ikuyembekezeka kuyambiranso mofulumira, ndikuyendetsa kuchepa kwa zinthu.Kusintha kosalekeza kwa zoyambira kumapangitsa Shanghai Aluminium kukhala yolimba.Ngati malingaliro a macro akuyenda bwino, amakhala ndi mphamvu yobwereranso.Pambuyo pa nyengo yogwiritsira ntchito "Golden Nine Silver Ten", kufooka kwa kufunikira ndi kukakamizidwa kodziwika bwino, mtengo wa aluminiyumu udzakumananso ndi chitsenderezo chachikulu cha kuwongolera.
Thandizo la mtengo ndi lodziwikiratu, kukakamiza kwa pullback kumakhala kofooka kuposa mu June
Mu June, Federal Reserve inalengeza kuti idzakweza chiwongoladzanja ndi mfundo 75.Pambuyo pa chilengezochi, msikawo unayamba kugulitsa zoyembekeza za kuchepa kwachuma, zomwe zinayambitsa kuchepa kwakukulu kwa mitengo ya aluminiyamu mozungulira mosalekeza chaka chino.Mtengowu udatsika kuchoka pa 21,000 yuan/ton mkati mwa Juni mpaka 17,000 yuan mkati mwa Julayi./t pafupi.Mantha a tsogolo lofuna kugwa, kuphatikiza ndi nkhawa za kufooketsa zikhalidwe zapakhomo, zathandizira kutsika komaliza.
Pambuyo pa mawu a hawkish sabata yatha ndi Wapampando wa Federal Reserve, msika unagulitsanso zoyembekeza za kukwera kwa chiwongola dzanja cha 75, ndipo mitengo ya aluminiyamu idatsika ndi pafupifupi yuan 1,000 m'masiku atatu, akukumananso ndi kukakamizidwa kwakukulu kuti akonze.Timakhulupirira kuti kukakamizidwa kwa kuwongoleraku kudzakhala kochepa kwambiri kuposa kwa June: kumbali imodzi, phindu la mafakitale a electrolytic aluminiyamu mu June linali pamwamba pa 3,000 yuan / ton, kaya ndikuwona kufunika kwazitsulo za aluminiyamu. palokha, kapena makampani akumtunda potengera kufooka kwa kufunikira.Kuchokera pakuwona phindu lalikulu losakhazikika, makampani a aluminiyamu akukumana ndi chiopsezo cha kuchepa kwa phindu.Phindu likakwera, kugwa kumachulukirachulukira, ndipo phindu lamakampani lomwe lilipo pano latsika pafupifupi 400 yuan/tani, kotero pali malo ochepa opitilira kuyimbanso.Kumbali ina, mtengo wapano wa aluminiyamu ya electrolytic mwachiwonekere imathandizidwa.Mtengo wapakati wa aluminiyamu ya electrolytic pakati pa mwezi wa June unali pafupifupi 18,100 yuan / tani, ndipo mtengo wake unali udakali pafupi ndi 17,900 yuan / tani kumapeto kwa August, ndi kusintha kochepa kwambiri.Ndipo m'nthawi yotalikirapo, pali malo ochepa a aluminiyamu, anode ophikidwa kale ndi mtengo wamagetsi kuti agwe, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti mtengo wa aluminiyamu wa electrolytic ukhale wapamwamba kwa nthawi yayitali, ndikupanga chithandizo chamtengo wapatali wamakono. .
Mitengo yamagetsi ya kumayiko akunja ndi yokwera, ndipo kuchepa kwa kupanga kudzakulirakulira
Ndalama zamphamvu zakunja zakunja zimakhalabe zokwera, ndipo kuchepa kwa kupanga kupitilira kukula.Kupyolera mu kuwunika kwa dongosolo la mphamvu ku Ulaya ndi United States, zikhoza kuwoneka kuti mphamvu zowonjezereka, gasi, malasha, mphamvu za nyukiliya ndi zina zowonjezera mphamvu zimakhala ndi gawo lalikulu.Mosiyana ndi United States, Europe imadalira kwambiri zinthu zochokera kunja kwa gasi ndi malasha.Mu 2021, kugwiritsa ntchito gasi wachilengedwe ku Europe kudzakhala pafupifupi ma kiyubiki mita 480 biliyoni, ndipo pafupifupi 40% yamafuta achilengedwe amatumizidwa kuchokera ku Russia.Mu 2022, mkangano pakati pa Russia ndi Ukraine unayambitsa kusokonezeka kwa gasi ku Russia, zomwe zinachititsa kuti mitengo ya gasi ikhale yowonjezereka ku Ulaya, ndipo Ulaya anayenera kuyang'ana njira zina zowonjezera mphamvu za Russia padziko lonse lapansi, zomwe zinakankhira mosalekeza. kukwera mitengo ya gasi padziko lonse lapansi.Pokhudzidwa ndi mitengo yokwera yamagetsi, mafakitale awiri a aluminiyamu aku North America achepetsa kupanga, ndikuchepetsa kupanga matani 304,000.Kuthekera kwa kuchepetsedwa kwina kopanga sikudzachotsedwa pambuyo pake.
Kuwonjezera pamenepo, kutentha kwakukulu ndi chilala cha chaka chino zachititsanso vuto lalikulu ku Ulaya.Madzi a mitsinje yambiri ya ku Ulaya atsika kwambiri, zomwe zakhudza kwambiri mphamvu yopangira mphamvu zamagetsi.Kuonjezera apo, kusowa kwa madzi kumakhudzanso kuzizira kwa magetsi a nyukiliya, ndipo mpweya wotentha umachepetsanso mphamvu ya mphepo, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti zikhale zovuta kuti magetsi a nyukiliya ndi ma turbine amphepo azigwira ntchito.Izi zakulitsanso kusiyana kwa magetsi ku Europe, zomwe zapangitsa kuti mafakitale ambiri azimitsidwa.Poganizira za kufooka kwa mphamvu zomwe zikuchitika ku Europe, tikukhulupirira kuti kuchuluka kwa kutsika kwa kupanga aluminiyamu ku Europe kudzakulitsidwanso chaka chino.
Kuyang'ana m'mbuyo pa kusintha kwa mphamvu yopanga ku Europe, kuyambira pamavuto azachuma mu 2008, kuchepa kwapang'onopang'ono ku Europe kupatula Russia kwadutsa matani 1.5 miliyoni (kupatula kuchepetsa kupanga muvuto lamphamvu la 2021).Pali zinthu zambiri zochepetsera kupanga, koma pomaliza pake ndi nkhani yamtengo wapatali: mwachitsanzo, pambuyo pa kuphulika kwa mavuto azachuma mu 2008, mtengo wa electrolytic aluminium ku Ulaya unagwera pansi pa mtengo wamtengo wapatali, womwe unayambitsa kuchepetsedwa kwakukulu kwa kupanga muzomera za aluminiyamu za electrolytic ku Europe;Kufufuza kwa mtengo wamagetsi odana ndi sabuside kunachitika ku United Kingdom ndi madera ena, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti mitengo yamagetsi ichuluke komanso kuchepetsa kupanga kwamafuta a aluminiyamu akumaloko.Boma la UK likukonzekeranso kuyamba mu 2013, zomwe zimafuna kuti majenereta amagetsi azilipira ndalama zowonjezera kutulutsa mpweya wa carbon.Njira izi zawonjezera mtengo wamagetsi ku Europe, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti ma electrolytic ambiri azithaaluminiyamu ogulitsa mbiri zomwe zidayimitsa kupanga koyambirira ndipo sizinayambitsenso kupanga.
Kuyambira pomwe vuto lamagetsi lidayamba ku Europe chaka chatha, ndalama zamagetsi zam'deralo zakhala zikukwera.Chifukwa cha mkangano wa Ukraine-Russia ndi nyengo yoipa, mtengo wa gasi wachilengedwe ndi magetsi ku Ulaya wafika pa mbiri.Ngati pafupifupi mtengo wamagetsi wapafupi ndi 650 euro pa MWh, ola lililonse la kilowati lamagetsi likufanana ndi RMB 4.5/kW·h.Kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu pa tani imodzi ya electrolytic aluminiyamu yopanga ku Europe ndi pafupifupi 15,500 kWh.Malinga ndi kuwerengera uku, mtengo wopangira tani imodzi ya aluminiyamu uli pafupi ndi 70,000 yuan pa tani.Zomera za aluminiyamu zopanda mitengo yamagetsi yanthawi yayitali sizingakwanitse konse, ndipo chiwopsezo cha kuchepetsa kupanga kwa aluminium electrolytic chikupitilira kukula.Kuyambira 2021, mphamvu yopanga aluminiyamu ya electrolytic ku Europe yachepetsedwa ndi matani 1.326 miliyoni.Timayerekezera kuti titalowa m'dzinja, vuto la kuchepa kwa mphamvu ku Ulaya silingathe kuthetsedwa bwino, ndipo pali chiopsezo chowonjezereka cha kuchepa kwa electrolytic aluminium kupanga.matani kapena apo.Poganizira za kuchepa kwapang'onopang'ono kwa zinthu ku Europe, zidzakhala zovuta kuchira kwa nthawi yayitali pambuyo podulidwa.
Mphamvu zamagetsi ndizodziwika bwino, ndipo kutumiza kunja kuli ndi phindu lamtengo wapatali
Msika nthawi zambiri umakhulupirira kuti zitsulo zosakhala ndi chitsulo zimakhala ndi mphamvu zandalama kuwonjezera pa zinthu zamtengo wapatali.Timakhulupirira kuti aluminiyumu ndi yosiyana ndi zitsulo zina ndipo imakhala ndi mphamvu zamphamvu, zomwe nthawi zambiri zimanyalanyaza msika.Pamafunika 13,500 kW h kupanga toni imodzi ya aluminiyamu ya electrolytic, yomwe imadya magetsi apamwamba kwambiri pa tani pakati pa zitsulo zonse zopanda chitsulo.Kuonjezera apo, magetsi ake amawerengera pafupifupi 34% -40% ya mtengo wonse, choncho amatchedwanso "magetsi olimba-boma".1 kWh yamagetsi imayenera kuwononga pafupifupi magalamu 400 a malasha wamba pafupifupi, ndipo kupanga tani imodzi ya aluminiyamu ya electrolytic kumafunika kuwononga pafupifupi matani 5-5.5 a malasha otentha.Mtengo wa malasha pamagetsi apanyumba umatengera pafupifupi 70-75% ya mtengo wopangira magetsi.Mitengo isanawongoleredwe, mitengo yam'tsogolo yamalasha ndi mitengo ya aluminiyamu ya Shanghai idawonetsa kulumikizana kwakukulu.
Pakalipano, chifukwa cha kukhazikika kwa kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka anthu.Mtengo wa FOB wa 6,000 kcal NAR malasha otentha ku Newcastle, Australia ndi US$438.4/tani, mtengo wa FOB wa malasha amoto ku Puerto Bolivar, Colombia ndi US$360/tani, ndipo mtengo wa malasha otenthetsera padoko la Qinhuangdao ndi US$190.54/ton , mtengo wa FOB wa malasha otentha ku doko la Russian Baltic (Baltic) ndi madola 110 US / tani, ndipo mtengo wa FOB wa 6000 kcal NAR malasha otentha ku Far East (Vostochny) ndi 158.5 US dollar / tani.Madera otsika mtengo kunja kwa dera ndi okwera kwambiri kuposa apanyumba.Mitengo ya gasi wachilengedwe ku Ulaya ndi ku United States ndi yokwera kuposa yamagetsi a malasha.Chifukwa chake, aluminiyamu yakunyumba ya electrolytic ili ndi mwayi wokwera mtengo wamagetsi, womwe upitilize kuwoneka bwino pamitengo yamagetsi yapadziko lonse lapansi.
Chifukwa cha kusiyana kwakukulu kwamitengo yotumizira kunja kwa zinthu zosiyanasiyana za aluminiyamu ku China, mtengo wamtengo wapatali wa ma ingots a aluminiyamu sizowoneka bwino muzogulitsa kunja, koma zikuwonekera mu ndondomeko yotsatira ya aluminiyumu.Malinga ndi deta yeniyeni, China idatumiza matani 652,100 a aluminiyamu osapangidwa ndi aluminiyamu mu July 2022, kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi 39.1%;Kutumiza kunja kuchokera Januware mpaka Julayi kunali matani 4.1606 miliyoni, kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi 34.9%.Popanda kusintha kwakukulu pakufunidwa kunja kwa dziko, kuchuluka kwa kunja kukuyembekezeka kukhalabe kwakukulu.
Kugwiritsa ntchito kumakhala kolimba pang'ono, golide, siliva zisanu ndi zinayi ndi khumi zitha kuyembekezera
Kuyambira Julayi mpaka Ogasiti chaka chino, kumwa kwamwambo nthawi yayitali kumakumana ndi nyengo yoipa.Sichuan, Chongqing, Anhui, Jiangsu ndi madera ena adakumana ndi zoletsa zamagetsi ndi kupanga, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti mafakitale azitsekeka m'malo ambiri, koma kugwiritsa ntchito sikuli koyipa kwenikweni kuchokera ku data.Choyamba, ponena za kuchuluka kwa ntchito zamabizinesi akutsika, kunali 66.5% kumayambiriro kwa Julayi ndi 65.4% kumapeto kwa Ogasiti, kuchepa kwa 1.1 peresenti.Chiwerengero cha ntchito chinatsika ndi 3.6 peresenti panthawi yomweyi chaka chatha.Kuchokera pamalingaliro azinthu zamagulu, matani 4,000 okha a aluminiyamu ingots anasungidwa mu August wonse, ndipo matani 52,000 anali akadali osasungidwa mu July-August.Mu Ogasiti, kusungidwa kosungirako ndodo za aluminiyamu kunali matani 2,600, ndipo kuyambira Julayi mpaka Ogasiti, kusungirako ndodo za aluminiyamu kunali matani 11,300.Choncho, kuyambira July mpaka August, boma la destocking linasungidwa lonse, ndipo matani 6,600 okha anasonkhanitsidwa mu August, zomwe zimasonyeza kuti zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito panopa zimakhalabe zolimba.Kuchokera kumalo otsiriza, kutukuka kwa magalimoto atsopano amagetsi ndi mphepo ndi mphamvu ya dzuwa kumasungidwa, ndipo kukoka kwa aluminiyumu kudzakhala chaka chonse.Kutsika kwathunthu kwa malo ogulitsa nyumba sikunasinthe.Kutsika kwa nyengo yotentha kudzathandiza kuti malo omangawo ayambirenso ntchito, ndipo kukhazikitsidwa kwa thumba la ndalama zokwana 200 biliyoni lothandizira “nyumba zotsimikizirika” kudzathandizanso kukonza njira yomalizirira.Chifukwa chake, tikukhulupirira kuti "Golden Nine Silver Ten" nthawi yayitali kwambiri ikuyembekezekabe.
Nthawi yotumiza: Sep-09-2022