Posachedwapa, ndondomeko ya dola ya US ikupitiriza kukwera, koma msika wopanda ferrous sunagwere kwambiri, ndipo chikhalidwe cha kusiyana kosiyana chikuwonekera kwambiri.Pofika kumapeto kwa malonda masana pa Ogasiti 24, machitidwe a Shanghai Aluminium ndi Shanghai Nickel m'gawo lopanda chitsulo anali osiyanasiyana.Pakati pawo, tsogolo la aluminiyamu la Shanghai linapitirizabe kukwera, kutseka 2.66%, kuyika mwezi umodzi ndi theka;Tsogolo la nickel la Shanghai lidafooka njira yonse, kutseka 2.03% patsiku.
Ndizofunikira kudziwa kuti chitsogozo chaposachedwa kwambiri chazitsulo zopanda chitsulo ndizochepa.Ngakhale akuluakulu a Fed aposachedwa ali ndi malingaliro a hawkish ndipo index ya dollar yaku US ikupitilizabe kulimbikitsa, sizinakokere kwambiri zitsulo zopanda chitsulo, ndipo mawonekedwe amitundu yofananira abwerera ku zoyambira.Wu Haode, mkulu wa nthambi ya Changjiang Futures Guangzhou, amakhulupirira kuti pali zifukwa zazikulu ziwiri:
Choyamba, kuzungulira kwapitako kwatsika kwambiri kwamitengo yazitsulo zopanda chitsulo kwakwaniritsa zoyembekeza za kugwa kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi pansi pa kayendedwe ka Fed.Kuyambira Julayi, malingaliro a Fed okwera chiwongola dzanja chatsika, ndipo kukwera kwa mitengo ya US kwasintha pang'ono, ndipo zomwe msika ukuyembekezeka kuti ziwonjezeke chiwongola dzanja zakhala zocheperako.Ngakhale kuti ndalama za US dollar index zidakali zamphamvu, kuyembekezera kukwera kwa chiwongoladzanja sikungalimbikitse ndondomeko ya dola ya US kuti ipitirire kukwera kwambiri.Choncho, zotsatira za kulimbitsa kwakanthawi kochepa kwa dola ya US pazitsulo zopanda chitsulo zimachepa pang'ono, ndiko kuti, zitsulo zopanda chitsulo "zikuwonongeka" ku dola ya US mu magawo.
Chachiwiri, kukwera kwamphamvu kwa msika wazitsulo zopanda chitsulo kuyambira August makamaka kwachokera kumsika wapakhomo.Kumbali imodzi, mothandizidwa ndi ndondomeko zapakhomo, zoyembekeza za msika zakhala zikuyenda bwino;Kumbali ina, kutentha kwakukulu m’malo ambiri kukuchititsa kuti magetsi achepe, kuchititsa kuti zinthu zichepe pamapeto osungunula, ndi kukankhira mitengo yachitsulo kuti ibwerenso.Choncho, zikhoza kuwoneka kuti disk yamkati imakhala yamphamvu kuposa diski yakunja, ndipo kusiyana pakati pa mphamvu zamkati ndi kunja kwa mitengo ya aluminiyamu ndizoonekeratu.
Malinga ndi a Hou Yahui, katswiri wofufuza za Shenyin Wanguo Futures Nonferrous Metals, August akadali mkati mwa nthawi yowonjezereka ya chiwongoladzanja cha Fed, ndipo zotsatira za macro factor ndizochepa.Mitengo yaposachedwa yachitsulo yopanda chitsulo makamaka ikuwonetsa zoyambira zamitunduyo.Mwachitsanzo, mkuwa ndi zinki zomwe zili ndi maziko amphamvu zikuyenda mosalekeza.Pamene mbali yoperekera imalimbikitsidwa ndi nkhani za kudulidwa kwa nthawi imodzi kunyumba ndi kunja, aluminiyumu yathyokanso posachedwa.Kwa mitundu yokhala ndi zoyambira zofooka, monga faifi tambala, ikadzabweranso m'gawo lapitalo, kukakamiza pamwambapa kudzakhala koonekeratu.
Pakalipano, msika wachitsulo wopanda chitsulo walowa mu nthawi yophatikizika, ndipo chikoka cha maziko a mitundu yosiyanasiyana chawonjezeka.Mwachitsanzo, opanga mbiri ya zinki ndi aluminiyamu ku China akhudzidwa ndi mavuto amagetsi ku Europe, ndipo chiopsezo chochepetsa kupanga chawonjezeka, pomwe kupanga aluminiyamu yakunyumba kwakhudzidwanso ndi kudulidwa kwamagetsi am'deralo.Chiwopsezo chochepetsa kupanga chawonjezeka.Kuphatikiza apo, zitsulo zopanda chitsulo zimapitilirabe kukhudzidwa ndi zinthu zochepa komanso kutsika kwapang'onopang'ono.Pamene chuma cha padziko lonse chikadali chochuluka, kusokonezeka kwa malonda kumakhala kosavuta kukopa chidwi cha msika. "Woyambitsa pakati pazaka zamtsogolo Yang Lina adatero.
Komabe, Yang Lina anakumbutsa kuti msika uyenera kumvetsera kuti msonkhano wapachaka wa mabanki apakati padziko lonse ku Jackson Hole, wotchedwa "barometer" wa kusintha kwa mfundo, udzachitika kuyambira August 25 mpaka 27, ndipo Fed Chairman Powell adzakhala. unachitikira Lachisanu 22 Beijing nthawi.kuloza kuti tilankhule za momwe chuma chikuyendera.Panthawiyo, Powell adzafotokozera za inflation ndi ndondomeko za ndalama.Zikuyembekezeredwa kutsindika kuti chuma cha US ndi msika wa ntchito zidakali zolimba, ndipo kukwera kwa inflation ndipamwamba kosavomerezeka, ndipo ndondomeko ya ndalama ikufunikabe kuyimitsidwa kuti iyankhe, ndipo kukwera kwa chiwongoladzanja kudzapitirirabe.Zosinthidwa kuti zigwirizane ndi zachuma.Zomwe zalengezedwa pamsonkhanowu zidzakhudzabe kwambiri msika.Ananenanso kuti msika wamakono wamalonda umasinthana pakati pa kukhwimitsa madzi, stagflation, ndi ziyembekezo zakugwa kwachuma.Kuyang'ana mmbuyo, zitha kupezeka kuti magwiridwe antchito a msika wachitsulo wopanda chitsulo akadali bwino pang'ono kuposa zinthu zina zomwe zili m'malo ofanana.
Kuyang'ana ogulitsa mbiri ya aluminiyamu, akatswiri amakhulupirira kuti kuwonjezeka kwaposachedwa kwa zosokoneza zapakhomo ndi zakunja kwabweretsa chithandizo chanthawi yayitali.Yang Lina adanena kuti pakadali pano, mbali ya aluminiyamu yapakhomo ikukhudzidwa ndi kutentha kwamphamvu kwamagetsi, ndipo mphamvu yopangira ikupitirira kuchepa.Ku Europe, mphamvu yopanga aluminiyamu idadulidwanso chifukwa cha zovuta zamagetsi.Kumbali yofunikira, makampani opanga zinthu amakhudzidwanso ndi kuchepa kwa magetsi ndipo kuchuluka kwa ntchito kwatsika.Ndi kupitiliza kwa nyengo yopuma komanso kuwonongeka kwa chilengedwe chakunja, dongosolo lamakampani opanga zinthu ndi lofooka, ndipo kubwezeretsedwa kwa kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwakanthawi kumatenga nthawi komanso njira zolimbikitsira.Pankhani ya zosungira, zolemba zamagulu zapeza ndalama zochepa za aluminiyamu zoipa.
Mwachindunji, Hou Yahui adauza atolankhani kuti kuwonjezera pa kuchepetsa kupanga komwe kumachitika chifukwa cha zovuta zamagetsi, ogwira ntchito ku Hydro's Sunndal aluminiyamu ku Norway ayamba kumenya posachedwapa, ndipo chomera cha aluminiyamu chidzasiya kupanga pafupifupi 20% m'masabata anayi oyambirira.Pakalipano, mphamvu zonse zopangira Sunndal Aluminium Plant ndi matani 390,000 / chaka, ndipo kugunda kumakhudza pafupifupi matani 80,000 / chaka.
Kunyumba, pa Ogasiti 22, zofunikira zochepetsera mphamvu za Chigawo cha Sichuan zidakwezedwanso, ndipo mabizinesi onse a aluminiyamu a electrolytic m'chigawochi adasiya kupanga.Malinga ndi ziwerengero, pali matani pafupifupi 1 miliyoni a electrolytic aluminiyamu yogwira ntchito m'chigawo cha Sichuan, ndipo mabizinesi ena ayamba kuchepetsa katundu ndikulola magetsi kwa anthu kuyambira pakati pa Julayi.Pambuyo pa Ogasiti, mphamvu zamagetsi zidakula kwambiri, ndipo mphamvu zonse zopanga aluminiyamu ya electrolytic m'derali zidatsekedwa.Chongqing, yomwe ilinso kumwera chakumadzulo, ilinso ndi vuto lamagetsi chifukwa cha kutentha kwambiri.Zimamveka kuti zomera ziwiri za aluminiyamu za electrolytic zakhudzidwa, zomwe zimakhudza kupanga matani pafupifupi 30,000.Ananenanso kuti chifukwa cha zinthu zomwe tazitchula pamwambapa, pakhala zosintha zina mumayendedwe otayirira a aluminiyamu.Mu Ogasiti, kukakamiza owonjezera pa gawo loperekera aluminiyamu ya electrolytic idaimitsidwa kwakanthawi, zomwe zidapanga chithandizo china chamitengo munthawi yochepa.
"Kodi kulimba kwa mitengo ya aluminiyamu kutha nthawi yayitali bwanji kumadalira nthawi yomwe kumenyedwa kwa aluminiyamu kumayiko akunja komanso ngati kuchuluka kwa kutsika kwamafuta chifukwa cha zovuta zamagetsi kudzakulitsidwa."Yang Lina adanena kuti nthawi yayitali yokhudzana ndi zofunikira ikupitilira kukhala yolimba, zotsatira zake pamitengo ya aluminiyamu zidzakhala.Kuchulukirachulukira kumakhudzanso kuchuluka kwa zinthu ndi kufunikira.
Hou Yahui adati pakutha kwatchuthi chachilimwe, kutentha kwanthawi yayitali kumadera akumwera chakumadzulo kukuyembekezeka kutha pang'onopang'ono, koma zitenga nthawi kuti vuto lamagetsi lichepetse, komanso kupanga ma electrolytic. aluminiyumu imatsimikizira kuti kuyambiranso kwa selo ya electrolytic kudzatenganso nthawi.Amalosera kuti mabizinesi a aluminiyamu a electrolytic m'chigawo cha Sichuan atatsimikiziridwa, akuyembekezeka kuti mphamvu zonse zopanga ziziyambiranso pafupifupi mwezi umodzi.
Wu Haode akukhulupirira kuti msika wa aluminiyamu uyenera kulabadira zinthu zotsatirazi: Pankhani ya kupezeka ndi kufunikira, kudulidwa kwa magetsi ku Sichuan mwachindunji kumabweretsa kuchepetsedwa kwa matani 1 miliyoni a mphamvu zopanga ndikuchedwa kwa matani 70,000 a mphamvu zatsopano zopangira. .Ngati zotsatira za kutseka zimatenga mwezi umodzi, kutulutsa kwa aluminiyamu kungakhale kokwera mpaka 7.5%.matani.Kumbali yofunikira, pansi pa ndondomeko zabwino zapakhomo, chithandizo cha ngongole ndi zina, pali kusintha kwapang'onopang'ono kwa kagwiritsidwe ntchito komwe kakuyembekezeka, ndipo pakubwera kwa nyengo yapamwamba ya "Golden Nine Silver Ten", padzakhala kuwonjezeka kwina. .Ponseponse, zoyambira za kupezeka ndi kufunikira kwa aluminiyumu zitha kufotokozedwa mwachidule monga: malire operekera amachepa, kuchuluka kwa kufunikira kumawonjezeka, ndipo kuchuluka kwazinthu ndi kufunikira kwa chaka chonse kumapita bwino.
Pankhani ya kuwerengera, zida zamakono za LME zotayidwa ndi zosakwana matani 300,000, zida zam'mbuyomu zotayidwa ndi zosakwana matani 200,000, chiphaso chanyumba yosungiramo zinthu ndi zosakwana matani 100,000, ndi zoweta zokhala ndi aluminiyumu yamtundu wa electrolytic ndi zosakwana 700,000."Msika nthawi zonse umanena kuti 2022 ndi chaka chomwe aluminiyamu ya electrolytic imapangidwa, ndipo ndi choncho.Komabe, ngati tiyang'ana kuchepetsa mphamvu yopanga aluminiyamu chaka chamawa komanso m'tsogolomu, mphamvu yogwiritsira ntchito aluminiyamu ya electrolytic ikuyandikira 'denga' nthawi zonse, ndipo zofunikira zimakhalabe zokhazikika.Pankhani ya kukula, kaya pali vuto la aluminiyamu, kapena ngati msika wayamba kuchita malonda, izi zimafunikira chisamaliro. "Iye anatero.
Kawirikawiri, Wu Haode amakhulupirira kuti mtengo wa aluminiyumu udzakhala wabwino mu "golide naini siliva khumi", ndipo kutalika kwapamwamba kumawona 19,500-20,000 yuan / ton.Ponena za ngati mtengo wa aluminiyumu udzakwera kwambiri kapena udzakhala wopanda pake m'tsogolomu, tiyenera kusamala za kuwongolera kwa kagwiritsidwe ntchito ka zinthu komanso chipinda chosokonekera.
Nthawi yotumiza: Sep-02-2022